I'm completely uninformed in this area, but my understanding is:
- BHP has close to monopoly of steel market in Australia
If BGD gets environmental approval (and judging from Bligh's comments, they will), they would have to come up with some serious money - $2.5bn. I have little doubt that QLD Government would jump up to guarantee bulk of these loans in order to secure the 3000 short term (construction, planning etc) and 1200 ongoing jobs. Still, they would need to undertake a massive capital raising and most likely find a joint venture partner.
Given all of this, wouldn't it make sense for BHP to simply acquire 100% of BGD to get rid of competitor, get exposure to potentially profitable project and finally do something with the pile of cash they are sitting on?
I just find it hard to see how a company that was trading at 2c for many months can come up with $2.5bn and enough skills to undertake a project this big. Also, should this go ahead, let's watch out for engineering and construction companies that win it - they'll skyrocket as well on the news. Having said all this, in my opinion if they get the approval, their shares should be worth at least $1. Any thoughts appreciated.
BGD Price at posting:
25.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held