bg decides, page-19

Hi Tui,

It seems that disappointments over the years have clouded my memory and I have posted some rather outlandish claims, for that I apologise! :) I checked the preso you linked to, and also went back to a few from 2006. The most enthusiastic I found was one from sep 2006 http://www.vicpet.com.au/Reports/download/corporate_update_GOC_6_September_2006.pdf

A lot of what was being put forward as potential value is no longer around (non core US assets sold off, dusters like banf and the failed attempts at Eagle). The total figures they were bandying about were 47c per share additional value (not 70c as I said). The cooper figures were 30c per share (16c of which was banff which was a duster). Note that these ARE pre consolidation amounts, however since that date the number of shares on issue has gone up by more than 2.7 times (there was around 1.9 Billion pre consolidation or 190 million post) so The dilutionary effect would be to bring the copper proposed value per share from the preso (after taking out banf) to about 5.1c (or 51c post consolidation) a far cry from the $7.00 I mentioned before, so Sorry for putting such bogus figures out there!!).

With respect to the preso you linked to, I would still take the figures with a large grain of salt. The amounts appear to be Net Present value calcs based on projected P10 reserves. There is no information about the assumptions that they made when doing these calculations, or the discount value they used in coming up with the figure for NPV so as I said before they really are just some numbers with no way of determining how conservative or optimistic they actually are. It's better than nothing, but to be on the safe side I would take them as being at the most optimistic end of the scale, and factor in a discount specific to ones own risk profile :)

No argument from me that VPE is one of the better value oilers to be in at the moment, the long history of shareholder disappointment and negative sentiment are a recipe to hold the price down until the point where it becomes so blindingly obvious that they are undervalued, and the inevitable re-rating occurs. It would certainly seem with the new board, the renaming, the posting of maiden profit and also the latest development with BG that this point may finally be upon us.

Tony.