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clock Created with Sketch. 10/02/19
15:46
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Originally posted by Exo1:
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For an exercise i'm tracking top 20 shorted companies against H1 2019 reports as they are released this month. Trying to gauge the influence shorts have on SP as a reflection of earnings and forecasts. BAL looks to be doing fine but with so much money betting against it will be interesting how results are portrayed. I thought the 2018 results and forecasts looked good but there were 4 negative reports coming from Reuters talking the company down. JBH will be one to look out for tomorrow 15.13% shorted. Might be an earnings blip so would expect 3-4% fall. If there is a big fall than it would be a strategic move by shorts to devalue stock. Can a correlation be made the same will happen to BAL. For anyone who bought in between $7-9 in the last 4 months and looking medium to long term not really going to be problem. Above $9 in the past week for new entrants another 10% fall might send them selling and cause downward pressure. From this point I can see two scenarios. Positive news accumulates leading up to report eg well publicised launch of new range, possibility SAMR approval which will negate negatives in growth for H1 resulting in upward movement in SP and holding until H2 results. The other scenario is not much in the way of publicity, no SAMR, negative growth for H1 leading to downward pressure and stagnation until at least April once a gauge on how new products are selling ie empty supermarket shelves, good sentiment from Diagou. My understanding is new product is not able to be sold directly in China so will be attractive to Diagou again, will be able to sell for a premium.Look out for empty supermarket shelves and monitor Diagou forums for sentiment. GLTAH. IMHO.
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Of course there will be a earnings blip. But like AMD who reported a poor quarter but a super aggressive 3rd and 4th quarter the share price surged. Why because they were taking market share. The formula was due for an update it was obvious the competition had a better product even though BAL had better mind share. Now we will be back on a growth path.
