Bell Potter Upgraded to buy

Recommendation
Buy (Hold)
Price
$1.51
Target (12 months)
$1.76 (previously $1.44)

Webster Ltd (WBA) Expanding the long duration footprint
A material expansion phase underway
We have adjusted our forecasts and Target Price to reflect a move to a September year end and recent developments on both commodity prices and capital deployment. On face value NPAT is downgraded 4% in FY18e, 3% in FY19e and 6% in FY20e. For the most part the downgrades represent the large upfront capital investment ahead of crop production. Consequently while our earnings forecasts are down, our target price is raised to $1.76ps (prev. $1.44ps) reflecting the value we see being added to the long-duration asset base of WBA. Major changes include:
Horticulture: We have incorporated the recent acquisition of Sandy Valley orchards, assuming that a further 460Ha of almond orchards are planted by FY21e (taking the total orchard base to 720Ha). We have also raised our planting assumptions for the walnut business in light of the recent acquisition of an additional 170Ha of land adjacent to the existing Leeton orchard. In addition we have upwardly revised our longer-term yield assumptions in the walnut orchards.
Agriculture: We have reviewed all our baseline assumptions for the row cropping business, with an acceleration in the expansion of row cropping acreage as well as upwardly revising our near term pricing assumptions in light of strong cotton prices.
Capex: We have revised our capex forecasts to reflect the material investment WBA is making in almonds, cotton and walnuts. In the case of walnuts and almonds this investment leads earnings by at least 4 years (6-7 years until peak yield is achieved).
Investment view: Upgrade from Hold to Buy
We upgrade our rating to Buy from Hold. Seasonal risks will always exist in a business like WBA given its substantial exposure to row cropping assets, however, the stock is trading at only modest premium to its water adjusted NTA of $1.48ps and at the precipice of an expansion strategy in both long duration horticultural assets and row cropping acreage, that has the scope to add value to the portfolio. This investment strategy is also expected to lead a material step change in EBITDA in FY20-26e as long-duration assets mature.
14 March 2018
  Enterprise value Market cap Issued capital Free float
Avg. daily val. (52wk) 12 month price range
Price Performance
16.6% 2.0% 18.6%
$666.8m $545.5m 361.2m 41% $229,612 $1.23-1.59
(12m)
1.49 4.03 -0.34
Price (A$) Absolute (%) Rel market (%)
(1m)
1.36 13.97 12.53
(3m)
1.38 12.73 12.62
  Absolute Price
$2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0
Earnings Forecast
Year end September
Sales (A$m)
EBITDA (A$m)
NPAT (adjusted) (A$m) NPAT (reported) (A$m) EPS (adjusted) (cps) EPS growth (%)
PER (x)
FCF Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend (¢ps) Franking (%)
Yield (%)
ROE (%)
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
DISCLAIMER:
15M17 2018e 2019e 2020e
275.8 184.6 192.8 208.6 44.2 56.6 64.3 64.2 14.2 26.1 30.6 29.8 58.3 26.1 30.6 29.8
4.0 7.2 8.5 8.3 n.a. n.a. 17% -2% 37.7 20.9 17.8 18.3 3.4% -1.3% -0.8% 0.6% 15.1 11.8 10.4 10.4 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mar16 Sep16 Mar17 Sep17 Mar18 WBA S&P 300 Rebased
SOURCE: IRESS
BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED ACN250063907721
AFSL 243480
2.0% 2.0% 2.9% 5.2%
2.3% 2.6% 5.9% 5.6%
Page1
   THIS REPORT MUST BE READ WITH THE DISCLAIMER ON PAGE 7 THAT FORMS PART OF IT.

Webster Ltd (WBA) 14 March 2018
A review of the key drivers
Agriculture: Our forecasts incorporate a crop on the Tandou property in FY18e ahead of its decommissioning. Thereafter the business should benefit from a capex spend between FY16-21e that should see a step change in the irrigated land bank at both the Hay aggregation and Kooba. At completion of the capital spend WBA will have the scope to produce in excess of 200,000bales of cotton annually, ~1,800 head of cattle, ~40,000 lambs and ~10,000t of cereals. Returns are highly leveraged to cotton prices and with cotton pricing ~A$570/Bale in FY18e and ~A$530/Bale in FY19e (vs. our longer-run assumption of ~A$500/Bale) we expect WBA to enter a period of inflated returns in the agricultural business.
Figure 1 - Cotton acreage (Ha) vs. theoretical production
  45,000 250,000 40,000
  35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
5,000
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000
00 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Planted cotton acreage Available cotton acreage (irrigated + dryland) Cotton production (Bales)
  Figure 2 - Historical and forward cotton price (A$/Bale)
  900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0
0.0
  1979 1984
1989 1994 1999
2004 2009 2014
2019e
SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
From a valuation point of view the conversion of a larger portion of the land portfolio to irrigated cotton acreage should result in a favourable revaluation in the value of the land assets, which is yet to be incorporated into the NTA.
Horticulture: Our revised forecasts for the horticultural division, assume a further 170Ha of walnut orchards are developed on the recently acquired plot adjacent to the Leeton orchard and that the full available land bank at the recently acquired Sandy Valley almonds orchard is also developed. Our forecasts assume industry average yields across the portfolio (which implies a step down in walnut yields in FY18e) which results in a tail of supply growth that extends through to 2025-26. While price will be a key driver of profitability the expanding and maturing orchard asset base ensure through the cycle growth in earnings in the horticultural business. The charts below highlight the production profile of the orchard assets incorporated in our NPV assuming no replanting cycle.
Figure 3 – Walnut acreage vs. theoretical crop
   3500 20000
   3000 2500 2000 1500 1000
18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000
  500 00
Swansea Tabitta Leeton
Avondale West Motspur Park Production ('000t)
Figure 4 - Walnut bearing acreage vs. theoretical crop
  800 2,500 700
   600 500 400 300 200 100
2,000 1,500 1,000 500
00 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047
WBA Bearing acreage WBA Non-bearing acreage Theoretical harvest volumes (t)
SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043

Webster Ltd (WBA)
14 March 2018
Recent US walnut prices have continued to strengthen with 10 consecutive months of YOY gains in average US export prices. YTD walnut prices are up a material +25% YOY on a weighted average USD basis. The near term outlook for walnuts is encouraging with frost and drought reduced crops in China (USDA projecting a 5% YOY decline in 2017/18) and a maturing acreage in California resulting in a 4.1% YOY decline in global supply. The maturation of the California orchard base (with a declining non-bearing acreage) and stock- to-use ratios approaching historically low levels are reasons for a more optimistic outlook on walnuts.
Figure 5 – US port prices – walnuts (US$/lb)
  5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00
200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0
Dec-11 Dec-12
Volume exported ('000lbs) - RHS
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
USDA average export price (US$/lb) - LHS
Dec-16
Dec-17
Figure 6 - US port prices – walnuts (US$/lb)
  2500 2000 1500 1000
500 0
8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
China USA European union Chile Turkey ROW
Ukraine
India
Stock-to-use ratio (%)
  SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
At the same time we have become more optimistic about long-term almond prices (See: Select Harvests – Heading into bloom (27/02/18)) as we now look to entering the point in the current long-run cycle we would typically expect a bottom to be reached. Past almond cycles have been fairly defined with a peak-to-peak trend of 9-10 years and a bottoming in price 3-4 years following the previous peak. This pattern is reflective of the seven year maturity cycle of almond orchards and the patterns of new plantings in California. We are now three years removed from the previous peak which would suggest that we are approaching the bottom of the current cycle, with this potentially brought forward by the recent frost event in California and the poor snow pack development season to date.
Figure 7 - US average port export values
4.50 250,000 4.00
   /Figure 8 - Long-term almond price cycles vs. production
  2500 2000 1500 1000
500
0
1984
4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00
   1988 Subjective estimate
Actual crop
1996
2000
2004
Objective measurement
Grower price per pound (USD) - RHS
1992
2008
2012
2016
   3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000
0.00 0 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Volume exported ('000lbs) - RHS
SOURCE: USDA
Average export value (US$/lb) - LHS
   SOURCE: BASED ON ABS DATA
We note the latest nursery report from California would tend to support our view, with new orchard plantings falling 37% YOY (the first fall in six years) to a level equivalent to 6.8% of the bearing orchard asset base (the lowest level in three years). In our view the supply side is now responding to lower pricing conditions in a very similar fashion to all other cycles. As such we view the move into almonds as opportune timing as WBA orchards will likely mature as we are entering the next upward phase of the price cycle.
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Webster Ltd (WBA)
14 March 2018
Sandy Valley almonds: WBA recently announced a $16.8m investment in the acquisition of the Sandy Valley almond orchard, a 935HA property, which has 260Ha of developed almond orchards (2-3 year old trees with first harvest in FY19e) and the scope for development for a further 460Ha of orchards. The is the first move by WBA into a complementary horticultural crop (to walnuts) and like walnuts is a higher returning crop on WBA’s water asset base. Assuming a full development of the asset base, while utilising industry average yields and at current almond prices, we would see the orchard as having the scope to produce ~2,000t of almonds while generating EBITDA of ~$9-10m at maturity.
Page 4

Webster Ltd (WBA) 14 March 2018
WBA valuation and risks COMPANY DESCRIPTION
WBA is Australia’s largest walnut producer, owning or managing ~80% of the Australian acreage, and now one of Australia’s largest cotton producers, with the scope to account for 5-9% of the Australian cotton acreage in high water allocation years. WBA is a material holder of water assets (~205,000ML) and land across 11 properties and is capable of producing ~200,000 Bales of cotton, ~10,000t of cereal crops, ~1,800 head of cattle, ~40,000 lambs, ~18,000t of walnuts and ~2,000t of almonds when assets are fully utilised and reach maturity.
VALUATION
Our $1.76ps target price for WBA is derived using a SOP methodology. Our SOP values derives a value of: (1) $420m for the horticultural assets which is derived using an NPV for the existing and planned walnut and almond orchards inside WBA; and (2) a valuation range of $340-460m for the agricultural assets based on an ROIC based methodology and an asset based model for the agricultural assets. Major assumptions in deriving this model include an asset beta of 0.65x for farmland deriving a WACC of 9%, long-run cotton prices of A$500/Bale, inflation adjusted long-run walnut prices of US$2.20/lb and inflation adjusted long-run almond prices of US$2.50/lb.
RISKS
Risks facing WBA include but are not limited to:
Access to water: A mature tree nut orchard requires ~10-12ML/Ha of irrigated water and cotton requires ~11ML/Ha to generate yield assumptions. While WBA has a significant water asset base, access to those entitlements are exposed to weather events that dictate the level of row cropping activity that WBA can undertake in any given year.
Crop risk: The onset of adverse weather conditions can impact pollination and nut set in both almonds and walnuts. In addition rainfall at harvest can affect quality and yield thereby impacting both volumes and prices achieved for the tree nuts crops. In addition to weather in key windows, insect damage and disease have the ability to impact crop quality and yields.
Pricing risk: Australia is a price taker in walnut, cotton and almonds. WBA is therefore exposed to fluctuations in global pricing which is a function of offshore crop sizes as well as movement up or down in the AUDUSD. Both these factors can have a meaningful impact on average selling price received by WBA for its products.
Input cost risk: Fertiliser and chemical costs represent a material component of both orchards and row cropping cash costs. A material uplift in fertiliser prices, crop protection products or seed can have a meaningful impact on the cost structure of WBA and affect profitability.
Yield: Our forecasts are predicated on industry average yields for the major commodities of WBA. Historically there has been volatility in yields for all WBA’s major commodities and the extent to which the properties prove capable of generating returns in line with industry averages will impact the profitability of WBA.
Access to funding: WBA will require a mixture of internally generated operating cashflow and funding to finance the expansion of its tree nut and row cropping asset base. Any change in future cashflows of WBA may impact the ability of WBA to fund this program.
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Webster Ltd
as at 14 March 2018
Webster Ltd (WBA)
Recommendation Buy
Price   $1.51
Target (12 months) $1.76
14 March 2018
  Table 1 - Financial summary
June year end
September year end
Price ($ps) Recommendation Diluted issued capital (m) Market cap ($m)
Ent. Value ($m)
Target Price ($ps)
1.51
361.2 545.5 666.8
1.76
Buy
  Sales revenue 77.5 . . . Change 18.0% EBITDA 20.0 Deprec. & amort. (4.4)
EBIT 15.6 Interest expense (3.1) Pre-tax profit 12.5 Tax expense (2.2) ...taxrate 18% Minorities -
Net Profit 10.3
Abs.&extras. (4.5)
Reported Profit 5.8
Cashflow (A$m)
EBITDA 20.0 Tax Paid (1.3) Net Interest Expense (2.7) Change in Wkg Capital (58.7) Other 41.4
Operating Cash Flow (1.3)
Capex (7.0) Div Paid (2.7)
Free Cash Flow (11.0)
Acquisitions (121.4) Disposals 9.8 Share Issues 17.9 Other (67.3)
Valuation Ratios
EPS (¢ps) Change (%) PE(x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x)
Adj. NTA ($ps) P/NTA (x)
Book Value ($ps) Price/Book (x)
2015 2016 2017
6.6 4.5 6.0 14.3% -31.7% 34.3% 22.9 33.6 25.0
33.3 22.4 14.4 42.8 30.7 19.0
1.23 1.26 1.44 1.22 1.20 1.05 1.44 1.19 1.37 1.05 1.27 1.10
15M17 2018e 2019e 2020e
4.0 7.2 8.5 8.3
n.a. n.a. 17.2% -2.4% 37.7 20.9 17.8 18.3 15.1 11.8 10.4 10.4 22.3 15.2 13.1 13.3
1.48 1.52 1.57 1.61 1.02 0.99 0.96 0.94 1.34 1.38 1.43 1.48 1.13 1.09 1.05 1.02
2015
2016
128.4 65.7% 29.7 (8.0)
21.7 (6.8) 14.9 0.9 -6%
-
15.8
(96.5)
(80.7)
29.7 (2.7) (5.0) 18.1 0.1
40.3
(25.6) (3.5)
11.3
(32.7) 15.2 -
1.2
(5.0)
2017
222.9 73.6% 46.4 (11.2)
35.2 (6.3) 28.9 (7.6) 26%
-
21.3
44.3
65.6
46.4 (1.0) (6.3)
(101.3) 71.4
9.2
(32.2) (3.5)
(26.5)
(28.8) 46.7 -
(0.0)
(8.5)
15M17 2018e
275.8 184.6 23.8% -17.2% 44.2 56.6 (14.3) (12.7)
29.9 44.0 (7.9) (6.8) 22.0 37.1 (7.8) (11.0) 35% 30%
- -
14.2 26.1
44.1 -
58.3 26.1
44.2 56.6 2.8 (8.8) (2.7) (7.0) 114.3 (7.0)
(84.0) -
74.6 33.9
(52.3) (30.0) (3.6) (10.8)
18.6 (7.0)
(32.3) (16.8) 93.7 -
- - 8.5 -
88.5 (23.8)
15.4 16.4 24.6 27.7 47.3 55.4
0.8 0.8
88.1 100.2
255.1 262.3 27.7 27.7 212.9 212.9 50.6 70.5
546.2 573.4
634.3 673.6
14.2 18.5 16.3 16.3 6.8 1.9
37.4 36.7
103.6 128.3 8.5 8.6
112.1 136.9
149.5 173.6
484.8 500.0
477.9 477.9 (1.4) (1.4) 8.3 23.6
- -
484.8 500.0
104.5 128.3
2019e 2020e
192.8 208.6 4.5% 8.2% 64.3 64.2 (13.2) (14.1) 51.1 50.1 (7.4) (7.4) 43.7 42.6 (13.1) (12.8) 30% 30%
- -
30.6 29.8
- -
30.6 29.8
64.3 64.2 (12.1) (12.9) (7.1) (7.4) (2.9) (5.6)
- -
42.2 38.2
(35.8) (22.5) (10.9) (12.7)
(4.4) 3.1
- - - - - - - -
(4.4) 3.1
16.4 16.4 28.9 31.3 57.8 62.6
0.8 0.8
103.9 111.1
282.3 287.1 27.7 27.7 212.9 212.9 73.0 76.7
596.0 604.4
699.9 715.4
19.3 20.9 16.3 16.3 5.0 6.6
40.6 43.8
132.7 129.7 8.6 8.6
141.3 138.2
181.9 182.1
518.0 533.4
477.9 477.9 (1.4) (1.4) 41.5 56.9
- -
518.0 533.4
132.7 129.6
Profit & Loss (A$m)
June year end
September year end
* Adj. NTA includes water assets at cost in the asset base.
DPS (¢) 1.0 Payout (%) 15% Yield (%) 0.7% Franking (%) 100%
Performance Ratios
EBITDA/sales (%) 25.8% EBITA/sales (%) 20.1% OCF Realisation (%) -9% FCF Realisation (%) -108% ROE(%) 2.1%
1.0 3.0 3.0 22% 50% 75% 0.7% 2.0% 2.0% 100% 100% 100%
23.1% 20.8% 16.0% 16.9% 15.8% 10.8% 170% 28% 262% 71% -124% 131% 3.8% 4.3% 2.9%
3.0 3.5 4.0 42% 41% 48% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 100% 100% 100%
  (Inc.) /dec. in net debt
Balance Sheet (A$m)
Cash & near cash Receivables Inventories
Other
Current assets
Fixed assets Intangibles Water entitilments Other
Non current assets
Total assets
Creditors Borrowings Other
Current liabilities
Borrowings Other
Non current liabilities
Total liabilities
Net assets
Share capital Reserves
Retained earnings Outside equity Interests
S/holders' funds
Net Debt (Cash)
(172.2)
30.7% 33.3% 30.7% 23.8% 26.5% 24.0% 87% 96% 87% -27% -14% 10% 5.2% 5.9% 5.6% 3.9% 3.4% 5.5% 4.7% 6.9% 8.0% 7.6%
  ROIC (%)
Aseet Turn (years) Capex/Depn (x) Interest cover (x) Net Debt/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%)
Semi-annual (A$m)
Sales revenue
. . . Change pcp
4.52 3.72 4.13 3.09 4.48 4.87 4.55
1.58 3.20 2.86 3.66 2.37 2.71 1.60 5.06 3.18 5.62 3.79 6.42 6.90 6.74 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0
22% 26% 26% 24%
2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17
48.1 17.8 59.7 56.8 71.6 53.2 169.7 -3.9% 1.6% 24.0% 219.3% 19.9% -6.4% 137.1%
  EBIT 13.3 Interest expense 0.3 Pre-tax profit 13.5 Tax expense (4.3) ...taxrate 31% Minorities -
(2.7) 18.3 (5.5) (0.4) (2.6) (3.3) (3.1) 15.6 (8.8) 0.9 (3.2) 8.4 30% 20% 95%
- - -
27.2 7.4 27.8 (3.5) (3.4) (2.9) 23.7 4.0 24.9 (7.5) 0.1 (7.7) 32% -3% 31%
-- -
16.2 4.1 17.2
-- -
16.2 4.1 17.2
  Net Profit
Abs. & extras.
Reported Profit
9.3 (2.2)
0.3 (2.1)
9.5 (4.3)
12.4 (0.4)
(2.4) (96.5)
10.0 (96.8)
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES 8
Page 6

Webster Ltd (WBA)
14 March 2018
   Recommendation structure
Buy: Expect >15% total return on a 12 month view. For stocks regarded as ‘Speculative’ a return of >30% is expected.
  Hold: Expect total return between -5% and 15% on a 12 month view
  Sell: Expect <-5% total return on a 12 month view
  Speculative Investments are either start-up enterprises with nil or only prospective operations or recently commenced operations with only forecast cash flows, or companies that have commenced operations or have been in operation for some time but have only forecast cash flows and/or a stressed balance sheet.
Such investments may carry an exceptionally high level of capital risk and volatility of returns.
  Research Team Staff Member
TS Lim
Industrials
Sam Haddad Chris Savage Jonathan Snape Tim Piper
John Hester Tanushree Jain Financials
TS Lim
Lafitani Sotiriou
Resources
Peter Arden
David Coates Duncan Hughes Analysts
James Filius Alexander McLean
Title/Sector
Head of Research
Industrials Industrials Industrials Industrials Healthcare Healthcare/Biotech
Banks/Regionals Diversified Financials
Resources Resources Resources
Analyst Analyst
Phone
612 8224 2810
612 8224 2819 612 8224 2835 613 9235 1601 612 8224 2825 612 8224 2871 612 8224 2849
612 8224 2810 613 9235 1668
613 9235 1833 612 8224 2887 618 9326 7667
613 9235 1612 612 8224 2886
@bellpotter.com.au
tslim
shaddad csavage jsnape tpiper jhester tnjain
tslim lsotiriou
parden dcoates dhughes
jfilius amclean
   Bell Potter Securities Limited
ACN 25 006 390 7721
Level 38, Aurora Place
88 Phillip Street, Sydney 2000
Telephone +61 2 9255 7200 www.bellpotter.com.au
The following may affect your legal rights. Important Disclaimer:
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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.
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