Mike, I don't see FMG walking away from Iron Valley.They need it...

Mike, I don't see FMG walking away from Iron Valley.

They need it to develop Nyidinghu, they have invested $25 million in it already, and every possible indicator shows that they are pushing ahead with aggressive expansion plans.

The only caveats here are that a collapse in the iron ore price (I think below $90 p/t would kill it) and also don't forget that FMG are doing some sort of due diligence on Iron Valley and it's possible they might find something that scuttles the deal although unlikely IMHO.

So I'm giving FMG an 85% probability of taking up the Iron Valley option.

As I said previously, this stock is a ripper punt from current prices IMHO.