So had a look over the half year. EBITDA margin decreased to 26.5% (from 33.4%), PDL revenue was strong though so overall they increased revenue by 1% to $64.5M. I am expecting another 20% fall in PDL in 2H16 - however it is important to note that 50% of PDL recoveries are of debt >2yrs old, and 36% of debt recoveries from debt >3yrs old... So a fall of 20% in PDL really equates to a decline of 10% on PDL revenue...
The guidance given of $15.5M - $19.3M, I expect will come in on the lower range - IMO around $16M. With margins being squeezed in the short term I expect EPS to be 12.2c and DPS to be 6.5c, so final of 2.6c... I have an order in @ $1.10 - hopefully this will execute based on negative sentiment.
If not with earnings stabilizing and dividends increasing from 2017 onward, I think fair value right now is ~$1.40.
CLH Price at posting:
$1.24 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
