I see proximity to WS and similarity in structure type as best predictors of success at Wardie atm. I'd agree with Neil's estimate of prob of success for Wardie. I note that TDO refer to it as an exploration well which is a good conservative comment. WS-3 (current well) would have to be 80%+ prob of success. I've stopped short of 100% because there's a very small chance that reservoir is poor or absent at the crest of the structure. There's no evidence of this though, just me being cautious!
I see proximity to WS and similarity in structure type as best...
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