I know most of us are in BDA for the FA but for anyone who might be interested, over the weekend I noticed the BDA weekly chart is looking interesting. I usually keep an eye on the daily chart but at that level of detail I hadn't noticed some of the points below. (I'm not a charting expert by anyone's measure, so more than happy for anyone to add their 2c or point out anything I have missed)
From the low in mid Sept last year, BDA ran to a high of 72c in early Jan. Since then, we saw a neat retrace to the 61.8% fib in late March (
1). Last week we came within half a cent of the Jan high (
2), and if we do get through that resistance level of 72c an initial target could be 96c (100%) and then even $1.35 (161.8%).
Last week saw the weekly MACD cross up through the trigger line (
3), which is considered a buy signal. This same buy signal also shows in the daily MACD at the start of the week before (
4). These are very bullish signals which are visible in multiple time frames.
The RSI is now in a strong position tipping over 70 last week (
5) and trending upward but still short of what you would consider overbought. While the SP is now up around similar levels as the last leg up, the RSI is still well below the 80+ levels it reached at the time (
6) suggesting there is still plenty of room to move upward.
Volume is building over the last few weeks (
7), but again, well short of the volume we saw during the first run (
8). This could be suggesting the current move up is only just getting moving now.
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From an Elliot Wave perspective, if we consider the initial run up as Wave 1, then the corrective wave (A,B,C) would be Wave 2. In this case we could consider the current move to be the start of Wave 3. Wave 3's can run hard and fast, and are often the largest of the 5 waves. A common target for a Wave 3 move would be 161.8% of Wave 1, which would be $1.35. After that, we could expect another corrective Wave 4 before Wave 5
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There is no telling if any of these possibilities will play out, but it is a strong looking chart at the moment with multiple bullish signals. FA obviously drives this end of the market and there are plenty of examples of great looking charts which have been ruined by a single announcement, so its risky to make decisions based solely on TA factors
