BCL saga, page-188

Posters will doubtless recall the author - John Helmer - of this article :http://johnhelmer.net/imf-delays-fu...7-million-russian-contract-default/......from his May 2, 2017 lengthy dissertation ("At Botswana Barbeque Norilsk Nickel Gets Burned....") wherein he was beating the drum for Norilsk in a diatribe on the BCL, Bots government, EIH and the Minister, and Norilsk, and the liquidation generally....

Today's article is less strident and just a tad more even handed. It outlines the recent IMF visit to Bots where IMF were of the view Bots should be less concerned with Norilsk as the IMF question whether Bots' obligation to settle Norilsk is quite as menacing as Bots govt seems to feel it is. Be this as it may, he again casts doubt on EIH's capability to become involved in BCL/it's assets, and has a bit of a swipe again at Minister Kebonang, while suggesting other industry figures feel there is possibly room for a compromise if Norilsk were to be prepared to "walk away for $150 million".

Interestingly, he goes on to quote Peter Major at Cadiz Corporate Solutions in South Africa who he says is predicting a return to $7 c/lb for Nickel, and suggests if this were so the Norilsk assets with BCL would become attractive to buyers.

As i said in my article above, there is potential in BML, let's not rush to give it away cheaply.
Though long, the Helmer article is fresh, and might be worth a read, since there is so little other meaningful info around presently.

"
By John Helmer, Moscow
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is delaying a decision on Botswana by the Fund’s executive board and shareholders as IMF staff are discreetly encouraging the Botswana Government to reject a breach of contract claim by Norilsk Nickel........"

"An IMF team was in Gaborone, the Botswana capital, in May for a fact-finding mission and consultation with government officials, the first the IMF has held in the country since December 2015. The IMF requested and received briefings on the Norilsk Nickel case from government officials and also from the provisional liquidator, Nigel Dixon-Warren of the KPMG accounting firm. He was appointed last October by the Gaborone High Court to supervise liquidation, sale of assets, and debt recovery from the bankrupt BCL group of companies.
On June 15, the court ordered a six-month extension of time for negotiations. According to a courtroom source, the extra time is for the government “to determine whether we can deal with those companies at the shareholding and creditor compromise level”. In short, for Dixon-Warren to strike a price for the nickel and copper reserves and mining assets which BCL owns in order to satisfy BCL’s creditors and cover BCL’s liabilities.".....

"Lawyers, miners and government officials suspect Kebonang of ” stitching up” the BCL asset sale so as to benefit EIH. Despite Mangoosh’s failure to submit a bid for BCL by the June 15 court deadline, the government told the court it had received a letter from EIH requesting more time. Dixon-Warren is barred from commenting on the details, but it appears from court testimony that EIH has not convinced the liquidator that it has the financial means to develop BCL’s unmined nickel and copper reserves, let alone revive operations and employment at the shuttered mine.
The court’s June 15 ruling was to keep open the liquidation process for BCL and the associated Tati mining company, which is also included in the Norilsk Nickel sale. The new deadline is December 15. Two mining companies, as yet unidentified, have submitted bids for the unmined nickel and copper in what have been known as the Selkirk and Phoenix minefields around Tati. Earlier interest by the US-owned copper miner Cupric Canyon Capital has faded.
Miners and mine analysts in South Africa say the bidding is a wager on the recovery of the global nickel price. Peter Major, head of mining at Cadiz Corporate Solutions in Cape Town, says he is predicting the nickel price will move upwards to its historical mean of around $7 per pound. With that target price in prospect, Major believes the assets Norilsk Nickel has contracted to sell to BCL, and which BCL is now looking to resell through EIH as intermediary, ought to find willing buyers with the money to invest for the price takeoff to come."......

In the weeks ahead, officials and mining sources in Gaborone say they will be looking to the IMF and other international banks for guidance on how to resolve the Norilsk Nickel dispute. “The Russians have got the government panicked,” says one official. “It’s a question of price of nickel in the future market. Bureaucrats from the IMF don’t count,” adds a miner in Gaborone. “There is an amicable solution for Norilsk and the government. That’s if they are willing to walk away for $150 million.”

Of note to worth remembering the liquidator did say recently the first creditors' meeting might be in August, the second between three to six months later, so I am polishing my walking stick as I feel it may be needed before this saga ends.