bated breath, page-33

Was hoping like others here that we wouldn't have to wait until Wednesday for some info, but it looks like that's how it's going to go as WA is in holiday mode per other posts.

Here are some basic thoughts:

PIR reached a few cents over $2 in Oct/Nov 2012 with ~260m shares = ~$520m MC, with ~35m listed options outstanding ... Fully diluted MC = $590m in Oct/Nov 2012.

Even though the amount of progress for production since that time has been debatable, PIR has shown that there is over 5moz of gold @ ~2.4gpt, with the prospect of more and more every time they drill + proposed production of over 300kpa @ AISC $750USD LOM with a 10+ year mine easily seen, etc, etc.

Currently PIR have ~342m shares = ~$487m MC, with ~19m unlisted options/performance shares ... Fully diluted MC = $514m.

Going by the article posted above (fully diluted):

$600m = ~$1.66 per share
$650m = ~$1.80 per share
$700m = ~$1.94 per share

$2.00 per share = ~$722m
$2.10 per share = ~$758m

Looks like the bid won't even hit $2 if the article is correct i.e. <$700m.

Even though I hate to say it, IMO a value of between $800m-$900m (fully diluted) should be seen here pre-production with current shares on offer and the current POG.

$800m = ~$2.21 per share
$900m = ~$2.49 per share

At USD$1300 POG, PIR will make $190m pre-tax operating cash flow each year, after royalties and C3 costs per PFS.

At USD$1100 POG, PIR will make $130m pre-tax operating cash flow each year, after royalties and C3 costs per PFS.

"Mining ventures are free of corporate tax for the first five years of production. Thereafter, the tax rate is 35 % or less when profit is reinvested in Mali (up to 27.5% depletion allowance). All equipment for the project can be imported duty free during the exploration period and for the first three years of the exploitation period." ... This is a major reason why PIR will be rolling in cash in the first 5 years of production!

Let's just simply assume 35% tax from the get go ... that leaves NPAT of ~$123.5m/~361m shares = ~$0.34 EPS OR $84.5m/~361m = ~$0.23 EPS (very simple calculation). Even if shares went to 500m* at start of production you're looking at ~$0.25 EPS or ~$0.17 EPS.

*Assuming 50/50 debt/equity for ~$300m CAPEX (should be lower with DFS ... should), $150m @ say $1 <---- finger in the air numbers.