BAT valuations, page-76

Whilst we wait for the BAT funding solution to be confirmed, thought I would post an update on my own MCAP estimates for BAT's production growth profile.

Now using current production levels for peers:

• SYR @ 106kt pa (full year target on track)
• BSM @ 6kt pa (nameplate production rate achieved)

Implies average value of 1 kt of graphite concentrate production is $6.6M as a proportion of Market Cap.

• SYR @ MCAP $6.4M/kt of production.
• BSM @ MCAP $6.9M/kt of production.

Quite interesting that SYR and BSM's MCAPs on a per kilotonne of product basis are within 10% of each other.

SYR have just initiated their Spherical Graphite production facility, however this is still only being used for product qualification at the moment. BSM have a Lithium project however I don't think the market is currently attributing any value to this project yet.

Projecting for BAT's proposed profile for Montepuez and Balama ( assuming Montepuez starts production in 2020 and profile plays out as identified in the corporate presentation ... attached below ).

From the analysis significant upside ahead ... MCAP from $41M now to potentially $1.7B in 2024 ( 67.8 x current MCAP ).

(estimates excludes any further upside from potential production of Spherical Graphite or Vanadium )




(excluding share price estimates from this whilst we wait for funding solution to be resolved and impact on dilution confirmed)

Notes/references:

From page 11 of quarterly:


As Battery Minerals executes subsequent expansions, subject to the completion of all necessary studies, permits, construction, financing arrangements, infrastructure access, it expects production to grow to over 100,000 tonnes per annum graphite flake concentrate from its Montepuez Graphite Project.

Battery Minerals has also now announced a feasibility study on its Balama Central project, which comprises a Stage 1 production rate of 58,000tpa (B1).

Combined with Montepuez and subject to continued positive economic, social and technical investigations, Balama Central provides scope for self-funded growth from a ~50,000tpa production-rate to at least 150,000tpa.

Production profile:

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181023/pdf/43zhq9trywt57c.pdf