Mason Graphite in Canada are currently building a 51.9kt project. BAT's Montepuez Stage 1 is 50kt. So I can use this to work out a valuation metric by dividing kilotonnes of production into MCAP.
For the below I have converted Mason Graphite's MCAP from CAD to AUD to allow comparison.
Due to the similar scale of the projects (based on annual production), around AUD $60M to $70M is a good indicator of where BAT value should be once we are financed and heading back in construction.
Mason Graphite are part way through construction. Site preparation works still underway and some of the process plant has been delivered to a port 285km from the project site.
A rerate of approximately 2.0x to 2.6x is justified once finance is resolved ( by comparing the MCAP metrics above for BAT.AX and LLG.V ). I've given a lower bound since BAT's basket pricing is about 30% less. OPEX is similar.
BAT Price at posting:
2.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held