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I'm confused. What's equity dilution got to do with market cap?

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Oxytorus

351 Posts.

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01/03/19

09:38

Post #: 37615365
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Originally posted by Blythefan: ↑

Wombat,

$5.5M market cap per kiloton of output, which is nominally US$1.1M, is a 5.5x Earnings multiple on EBITDA and before processing costs. That is probably a bit long, especially as this is pre-dilution of BAT's equity for funding the capex. Last time i looked, Flanno couldn't convince banks to lend more than 60% of the capital, so BAT would have to get diluted roughly 40-50%. Which thereby makes it an 11x earnings pre-cost of production. After, it's ~15x.

So, I think you might be 30% out on the multiple of market cap per tonne of production. And after dilution of CAPEX, that is multiplied even more.

If you use $2.5M per tonne of production you wouldn't be too far off my guesstimate, which puts the BAT upside price at 9c fully diluted and in 2022, for Montepuez only.

The real upside is the ability of BAT to turn on a second module and double production. Once BAT is making cash flow, filling orders, and being paid, borrowing another $35-50M will be a doddle.

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I'm confused. What's equity dilution got to do with market cap?

BAT Price at posting: 2.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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