BAT Upside Comparisons with SYR and BSM

DYOR. Not advice.
My own research and analysis is presented here. You are encouraged to do your own research and make your own decisions.​

Put together this chart to look at upside differences between SYR, BSM and BAT.

For BAT & SYR comparisons are based on MCAP estimates derived from planned production levels, with general assumption that 1 kt of production = $5.5M of MCAP. This is based on a broker price target for Syrah at $3.45 for 250 kt of production ( I have factored in known dilution for Syrah in this estimate ).

For BSM I have scaled their MCAP by their planned growth in production from 6 kt to 20 kt.

The bottom chart shows multiples of my expectations of growth in MCAP as the projects grow. Upside for the first year should be in the 5 to 10 for BAT range subject to additional dilution from the financing solution.

Potentially up to 4 times upside on Syrah over the next 3 years ( noting they are unlikely to increase the size of their plant in the next few years ), 3-4 times upside on BSM and perhaps 10 times upside on BAT over the first 3 years of production ( not allowing for dilution ). Perhaps conservatively 15 to 25 times upside for BAT over the 6 year plan they have laid out ( assuming a level of share issue dilution ).

Using $5.5 M for 1 kt of production I can calculate estimated MCAPs for BAT in each year of their expansion/growth plan. They will essentially add processing capacity by expanding their projects as demand allows them to. A low-risk way to do it. It means that if demand doesn't grow as forecast they aren't trying to cover interest payments on an expensive plant.

This analysis does not factor in additional upside from potential of downstream strategies for Spherical Graphite ( both SYR and BAT have this in their longer-term plans, with Syrah and BAT in the process of establishing pilot-levels of production, BAT via their Offtake partner Urbix ).

Will do an updated version of this analysis for BAT once we know the finance solution and I can calculate the impact of dilution.