Ok Butcher, heres how I sliced and diced BHP. (I am new-ish to charting, so.... sorry in advance for any cock-ups)
Standard Bollinger 20/2
Long term Billinger 200/2 (I use this for gauging relative strength of standard BB position, a negative break of the 200 BB by the regular BB is a sign of a free fall, and a sign of an opportunity to pick up undervalued shares.)
MA 20,50,200
In a nutshell:
November 2015 - Samarco mine event + dropping IO price in conjunction with the price action at both the lower side of the 20 and 200 BB meant that the negative news regarding Samarco was the straw that broke the camels back. Parachutes required.
March 2016 - Negative sentiment over Samarco is ancient history, IO prices looking up. Buyer sentiment reflects this with SP moves and a cross of the 20 and 50 day MA. (initial indicator of a sustained change)
July 2016 - Cross of the 200MA (confirmation)
March 2017 - Run culminates with a turn in sentiment and a negative cross of the 20/50MA. This results in a retrace back to the ~$22 level, which coincides with the SP prior to Samarco.
July 2017 - Bounce off of $22
Sep 2017 - 20 and 50 day MA cross of the 200 MA. Hasn't looked back since.
March 2018 - Potential test develops, rejected. Bounced off of some previous highs. (Jan 2017/Sep 2017/Nov 2017)
Short term - MACD shows a short term pull back to circa $30 flat and then im tipping a small run to $35/36 (16% gain) based on the previous runs high/lows, this should happen in late June or early August. Following this a bit of a churn down to $31/32.
Then it will be time for a re-assesment.
all IMNO.
Please tear the above to shreds, im here to learn.
