bargain, page-13

hi guys.

yep its normal to panic when SP is falling. but if u note, its on v low volumes relative to market cap, not an orderly market. the annual report came and reassures everything if u carefully read.


re- crookers observation, perhaps that metalicus was just not busy at that time(difficult to extrapolate 1 out of 250+ stores). iguess u have to factor the seasonal cycle of retail - mostly sales/specials and XMAS season.

Wholesale sales decline - already factored in - they are shifting from one end(house brand) towards designworks and also from black pepper wholesale to retail. This has already been their strategy in the prospectus, and will result in some wholesale sales falling, but more than made up by new retail stores(FY14 sales up, profit good).

LFL disappointment - yes mngmt should have been more conservative, as they forecast roughly 3% LFL for FY15. I assume it'll be closer to 0-1% for FY15, which will be a good result. But this 3% can be more than made up in other areas like acquisitions, cost cutting(like they did in FY14), and new license brand acquisitions.

That 3% LFL is only about 6-7M of Sales, not profit, so its not a lot of $. can be made up by other areas

Re - FX - PGR is hedged for this 1H 2015. From 2H it is unhedged, but applied an AUD rate of 82c.