EXS 0.00% 26.0¢ exco resources limited

lionel,I agree with what you are saying.I continue to hold most...

  1. 16,642 Posts.
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    lionel,

    I agree with what you are saying.

    I continue to hold most of my shares as I think that the 75% model (say 75-85%ish, I cant post them all) is the most likely scenario, which puts the SP in the 68-76cps range or a little more.

    I think the market is just shaking out the weak holders at this level, and will move into the higher bracket at some point in time.
    I mentioned that we were in the 50% model to show where we are at the minute, not to say thats where we should be, or where we will end up.

    I also posted the numbers exactly as I have written them down from yesterday, with no further analysis, as I was mainly using them to compare to what the market would do, on open, so I could be ready for any questionable pricing.

    I should also add that I only posted it, because so many were asking why the SP was at these levels, and these were the numbers I came up with, and might go some way to explaining it.

    I am not thinking in any particular way, I just ran the numbers as I saw them, with no emotion if possible, and then watched the market.
    It didnt take long to see the market was selling off yesterday, so I took that as a confirmation of the 75% model (or around that level).

    I didnt know what would happen with the SP yesterday(does anyone), I just looked for what the market reaction was to the announcement.

    I noted that "fluffy" tried to mention something along the same lines, but no one wanted to listen, so I kept quiet, while I watched to see what would happen.

    I had a couple of pages of various valuations ready, and although none of them were exactly right, I could change them quickly.
    As soon as the number of $175mil came out I knew the numbers I had would need some changes, as I thought $200mil would be the lowest figure.

    I wanted to be ready, mainly for a big run up in price where, if I thought it was way overvalued I could sell the lot & maybe buy more back for the same money, when the SP fell back to a more reasonable level (didnt get that right, did I).

    cheers









 
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