What I mean is Jako, you are saying the market thinks EXS will trade at 26c post-acquisition, which is a MC of around $90m.
However, you also note they will have $120m of cash in the bank at that point.
If EXS is to trade that low, there is a clear arbitrage. IVA could just come along and offer $120m (33% premium) for the company, pay out the cash to themselves on acquisition and then get the tenements they want for free.
My point is therefore that the market can't possibly apply a 50% value to that amount of cash. Any arbitrage rights itself eventually.
EXS Price at posting:
67.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held