Banter and General Comments, page-4452

Ok so I posted this on another thread, but hey I don't want the GXY crew to mis out on the analysis.

Car sales data in China for Feb is out. What did the data tell us?

Vehicle sales in January and February totaled 3.85 million, down 15% from a year earlier. So car sales have gone from about 4.5mil to 3.85mil a drop of 650,000. But EV has doubled and is now at 148,000 so that means the number of ICE vehicles is down 800,000 (lost sales).

Sources: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-car-sales-continued-to-skid-in-february-2019-03-11 and https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d3d774e77676a4d33457a6333566d54/index.html

Some may say that a part of this is the downturn in economy in China, others will say the Osborne Effect plays a huge role in this. I would totally agree, because I have read so many reports that many EV vehicles actually have a waiting list of at least 10,000 cars in China. That is they can't produce the most popular models fast enough. Many people were saying that the China subsidies would impact sales this year, guess what they are not as seen in the latest sales numbers.EV purchases continue to surge.

Osborne effect: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/25/the-osborne-effect-on-the-auto-industry/

Now 800K * and conservative $30K per car average means $24bil has evaporated from ICE car dealers. This is only 2 months into the full year. Do not underestimate the impact this will have on the share prices on ICE manufacturers by the end of the year. Do not underestimate the urgent meetings to reassess strategic decisions in selling cars to this region. E.g. Sales for Ford Motor Co.'s main joint venture in China, Chang'an Ford Automobile Co., collapsed in January and February, down 75% from a year earlier to 21,535 vehicles https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-car-sales-continued-to-skid-in-february-2019-03-11

What does this tell us? It tells us panic will set in and the race to be a part of the only real growing segment within passenger vehicles, EV is going to get hotter. Companies cannot ignore the writing on the wall now. In the same way that China changed overnight the recycling industry, they are now going to change the car industry. This will mean more EV choice, greater competition, better prices etc. which in turn will drive further EV sales etc.

This is going to mean more Lithium, more and more and more. No one can even come close in their forecasts. The only thing holding things back is the speed of production of cars, batteries and resources like lithium.

When the data finally starts to sink in around the world people will realise how much opportunity there is in the lithium sector based on today's prices. Those companies that have the plans, the capacity and the ability to deliver the goods are in for good times.

I am happy with my growing stake in GXY. I know I will be looking back over my shoulder at some point in the future with a huge smile on my face.

Note: I did all calcs really quickly, apologies in advance if I made any mistakes with any of the numbers.