The young generation moving to veganism/vegetarianism in the West is dwarfed by the growth of meat eating middle class in China & developing markets. Chooks are inexpensive protein and will continue in high demand as well. If Australia does not produce meat for export, it will just be produced elsewhere in the world (where regulation is less stringent and animal welfare is less of a concern - in the latest RFF investor newsletter there's some ponderings by Bryant why this matters).
From OECD data consider this:
- World population will still grow by around 74 million people per year by 2027. Most of this growth occursin Sub-Saharan Africa and India, as well as the Middle East and North Africa.
- At a global level, total consumption of meat and fish is expected to increase by 15% over the outlook period [ten years, to 2027], while per capita consumption of meat and fish rises by only 3%, with stark variations across regions. The strongest growth in total consumption is expected in Sub-Saharan Africa (+28%), although this reflects exclusively the impact of population growth; per capita consumption is expected to decline by 3%. By contrast, per capita consumption growth is higher in India (+12%, albeit from a low base) and China (+13%).
- The past decade saw strong growth in the global per capita consumption of poultry (+16%), while the per capita consumption of beef and veal decreased by almost 5% between 2008 and 2017. For the coming decade, per capita consumption of poultry (typically the least expensive meat) is expected to increase by 5.5%, while beef and veal is projected to recover, with growth of 3.5% over the next decade, notably in China. Per capita pigmeat consumption will be flat at the global level, but growth is expected to be strong in regions and countries where pork is popular, such as Latin America and the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. The role of China in global pork consumption growth is anticipated to diminish due to an already-high level of per capita consumption. Whereas China accounted for 65% of the increase in the previous decade, it will only contribute 45% of the expansion in the next ten years. Sheepmeat will remain a niche market in most countries, despite per capita consumption growth of 8% over the next ten years, concentrated mostly in China and other Asian countries as diets in the region diversify.
(20min delay)
