Been awhile since I posted on MML - was buying a few in the 30s...

Been awhile since I posted on MML - was buying a few in the 30s so didn't want to post too much...



It's been a nice run and I have stopped accumulating at this point as it's become my biggest position. And I think MML needs to post some runs on the board at this price before I see it moving much higher.

That said, whilst I'm long term bullish, I'm not 100% sure ALL the bad new is behind us yet - need to wait and see what happens with those 75 contracts the DENR are threatening to cancel, which to my understanding would affect the B1/B2 deposits (not that I've attached any value to them - but the market might still think there is value there).

I agree with @georgegeorge - I think MML's share price in the coming months (assuming the service shaft is completed in Jul - Sept) will be mostly limited by its reserves and its ability to cost effectively increase them.

If (hopefully when) MML starts producing 130k to 140k oz a year only having 370k in reserves is an issue. A company with only 2 to 3 years life isn't as an attractive investment story as a miner with 5+ years.

So I don't see MML north of a $1 at the current gold price unless they have reserves above 500k (which is possible in this higher gold price environment).

I realise that the new CEO is expanding drilling. Should be interesting to see to what extents he's been about to expand the reserves/resource. The higher gold price certainly helps!

One development that I have been watching that might be an opportunity for MML is a merger/acquisition of RED (another Philippines miner who has recently run into operation and cashflow issues).

A merger between these two (assuming MML gets increasingly free cash flow positive in the coming months) would offer an opportunity to to become a multi mine operation (albeit still with Philippines geopolitical risk)...

A merger would create a miner that has reserves closer to 1M ounces and combined resources of 2M - 3M... A much more attractive investment for bigger institutions.

Would likely push the new entity straight back into the ASX300 and GDXJ and I suspect the ASX200 in time.

If a deal for stock could be achieved even at a 30 to 50+% premium to RED's current share price I still it with would be very positive for both MML and RED shareholders.