bacci, you're wrong, page-3

bacci, great post- you seem to know a lot about soda.

There seem to have been some management changes, plus this article from December 2011, suggests that a potential takeover has been discussed:

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/penrice-soda-in-takeover-talks/story-e6frede3-1226214074579?from=public_rss

"But all options are now on the table to realise shareholder value, he said, including takeover talks with larger companies.

"I am not in a position to indicate the nature of those discussions, with whom they are occurring, or whether or when they might reach a position that can be announced to the market," he said.

Mr Trebeck told shareholders in a three-hour meeting the company had also been approached to sell its Angaston mine, but would not disclose the identities of those potential buyers, who are likely to include Boral and Adelaide Brighton Cement."
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BLD has a $2.8b market cap, and ABC has a $1.8b market cap. Both of these could pay $100m and have PSH as a bolt-on.

PSH's numbers look awful, and have looked awful for years. However, reading this:

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120228/pdf/424npp86hqrvhw.pdf

... the interviewer says PSH has net equity of $37.8m, and asset backing includes $51.4m of inventory (perhaps a little too much in the latter). With the rail now re-opened, and the new Japanese contract, there might be possibilities. I'll assume no compensation from the Govt re the rail closure, although realistically, there might be some. I understand the government not wanting to set a compensation precedent, because otherwise this could happen all over.

I see PSH as akin to PPX and HST: market caps low, and loss-making companies. HST and PSH have massive debt, but PSH has a monopoly- in Australia at least (PPX seems to have structural decline issues). Limestone is the bomb, and PSH has it.

The share price could fall to anything- sure, 5c- one just never knows. The rail shutdown was simply bad luck, and costly for PSH, but that has changed. The dollar is easing- from about $1.10 to $1.03.

The NTA has had another shocking decline: from 79c to 32c. Takeover talks might have been had when the NTA was much greater. Like PPX, the declining NTA might continue. Earnings per share has had a -274% change.

It will be interesting to see what changes over time. As you've said, bacci, everyone has lost with PSH: the market bought up when PSH announced the CSG program, but now we are lower than ever. This company was $2.50 when it was listed in 2005- now 8c. :/ It is a HST in this way. Some might call these companies a dog. :)

Still, revenue of 73m from the recent results (with an overall loss of $28m).

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120228/pdf/424nk7d5hpvx3q.pdf

Thanks for the reply. I'd love to see a tweak here and there for PSH to make it healthier. PSH is not like PPX andc HST that can shut down European loss-making operations- all its assets are in Australia, and it would be a shame if jobs are sliced, and operations lessened.

An interesting one. :)