b2 to ian _whitchurch, page-5

re: ian _whitchurch to b2 Acturtle,

I've got mixed thoughts about the 'buy before spud, sell during drill strategy'.

It used to work well.

Then, IMO, it stopped working .

Now, the amount of new, unsophisticated, money in the market might have changed it back to working.

My gut feeling is that we're in the first retrace of the oil boom market ... we'll see the next mvoe in the bigger companies, as funds managers get into energy stocks in a bigger way.

While a fund manager probably wont go after a DLS, a EPR or an EPE, I can see the 'second tier' companies (AWE, OSH, BPT, STU, ARQ, PSA) getting inflows of fund manager money.

But yeah, juniors are highly dependant on striking oil.

And the Cooper has sucked in the last year.

I think STU has a reserves and production base to easily underpin it's current price, and as people figure what they lost in their recent drills (not much, maybe $2m spent for a $50m company), they'll get some of the more conservative money come back in.

Do I think they'll run to a buck fifty ? No.

But I think they'll drift sideways, then bump up as people who pay attention to reserves and cash flow top up.

COE is in much the same boat.

Ian Whitchurch