AVL Chart, page-2875

It is ok to change your view as you see FA changing here short term.  The 2022 production start date is a concern for me as well on the FA front (see below).  Still hold, but not as many so I don't think you need to be defending yourself here. 

Agree with what you have written, and I said similar the other day - Post #: 36911125

They should be expediting the development, by getting the right skills set on board to do things simultaneoulsy and with focus.  Plans for batteries need to take a back seat to just entering the market now.  Finally, I have seen enough entities with either binding MOUs that they will sign an Offtake at this point in this cycle by x date or have them in place prior to the PFS.  At the end of the day, the key now is who buys the Options shortfall - if it is an entity like Win Win then FA in my opinion is 'almost' restored and therefore market uncertainty as to whether this gets to mining is removed IMO.  Starting construction in 2021 is the issue here.

I will give you a clap for your prediction, but some of these other claims are getting stupid. 

The one the other day around daytraders etc was a real concern.  If everyone in the stock market is a day trader and the market does not have anyone in long term hold positions the market becomes dysfunctional.  Just imagine in every entity you invest in the whole top twenty changes daily with a pip or two movement in the SP - the market would become dysfunctional.  You are a trader, that is fine and you done well here but don't confuse the picture. For long termers if it turns they will always make more than traders, as day tarders are generally caught with their pants down on sustained upturns (with breakaway gaps)

As to the issue at hand of oil price falls, the EV revolution took off when oil prices reduced in any event, so I would expect battery takeof to occur for vanadium at some point, but batteries in the now are not the main game here (steel is).  As to China, I suspect they will do what they did after the GFC and focus on the domestic economy until international markets improve, hence why iron ore and coal sales and LNG sales from Oz will continue to grow (as they did after the GFC).  The key is what happens in China in Feb as Dec/Jan is generally a lull in their buying in the market etc.

But for you there will be some good buying opportunities when they turn, and I also do intend to take some advantage of that by entering companies I think have good FA.  Ultimately FA trumps TA, but for AVL the lead time to construction is impacting FA (because it gives existing producers time to expand and provides other emerging players the gateway to market and the uncertainty here in the market is will AVL make the market in time as I feel 2022 is cutting it fine).

Time to market is the essence here and is what is impacting FA here IMO.

Won't comment any further until AVL announce who the shortfall in options is going to.

All IMO