Hi Tony, See what you are saying and that analogy has merit,...

Hi Tony,

See what you are saying and that analogy has merit, however, when talking residential lending APRA has come in and basically set a 'floor' to those assessments. Lenders are now assessing loans on 7.5 - 8% minimum, even if interest rates go down further. The 3% no longer applies, its basically the higher of the 3% increase above current rates or 7.5-8% (depending on the lender).

Im not saying its impossible the commodity prices are where they need to be in two years. I am saying its a gamble for the bank to lend on the assumption they will be as we know commodity price forecasts are so regularly wrong. I certainly didnt expect the cobalt price to crash to where it has, and I cant think of one forecast that did.