AUZ Chart, page-4196

Hi Tony,

See what you are saying and that analogy has merit, however, when talking residential lending APRA has come in and basically set a 'floor' to those assessments. Lenders are now assessing loans on 7.5 - 8% minimum, even if interest rates go down further. The 3% no longer applies, its basically the higher of the 3% increase above current rates or 7.5-8% (depending on the lender).

Im not saying its impossible the commodity prices are where they need to be in two years. I am saying its a gamble for the bank to lend on the assumption they will be as we know commodity price forecasts are so regularly wrong. I certainly didnt expect the cobalt price to crash to where it has, and I cant think of one forecast that did.