So you say that IRR isnt critical to financing then in the next sentence say stability of earnings and cashflow certainty is.
IRR is, and always will be, a good indicator for earnings and cash-flow certainty relative to capex injection required. The IRR here is very sensitive to the prevailing commodity prices, aka, what will be the biggest determinant of cash-flow. A higher IRR = a higher level of buffer if things dont go to plan or commodity prices arent as high as they need to be at time of production.
Having to assume commodity prices so far above spot to generate a 15% post-tax IRR clearly indicates that the stability of earnings and cash-flow are not there, which is the exact point, especially as commodities are cyclical.
Offtakes aren't going to lock in a price floor, why would any offtake partner do that. In order to somehow negotiate said price floor, the floor would need to be well above current spot prices to get this off the ground as higher prices are needed for the cash-flow for the loan to be repaid. It's just not a feasible option in reality, SK aren't charity. SK are smart in saying we are more than happy to take the product if you get this off the ground without putting down any cash.
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