I like MSB but value wise investors are going to look it and compare it to other Aussie bios that are much cheaper and have late stage drugs too.
I think people are wary because it doesn't make much money but is valued over $1B. I think the valuation is fair with so many late stage therapies in big markets but downside is high if anything goes wrong (as many bio investors know how stocks can get hammered on bad news).
Obv there aren't any Aussie bios with the number of Phase III's and Phase II's as MSB along with the ability to fund some of those off their own bat. Having the largest generic pharma in the world as a partner is also helpful :) Plus the CEO holds a large amount of stock and will have a say in a possible takeover by TEVA. On that score I would say MSB has the best chance of all Aussie bios of getting to Gilead's status.
The TEVA stake does pose a problem as once MSB gets approval and starts selling, TEVA you would think would try to take them out. $10B might be too tempting to Dr Itescu?
I am biased on UNS but don't think it will get to $10B (will be taken out before it even gets close though it does have a CEO that owns a fair bit of stock and would have a say in any takeover).
