Sorry, the IO price is unlikely to get to $100, let alone exceed...

Sorry, the IO price is unlikely to get to $100, let alone exceed it. Never say never, but the probability is very very low: we live in a different world to when it was above that last time, not the least being the ensuing explosion in IO producers around the world and the massive increase in production from the Big Three - the latest from Vale's S11D development which will ramp up to 90Mtpa, bringing Vale's total production to 450 - 500Mtpa by 2020 from the current 340-350Mtpa.

More importantly, the costs of the Big Three are plummeting. S11D costs will come in at $7.70/t, 41% below Vale's current average cost. They are all embracing remote control technology, faster than smaller companies can hope to do.

MGX is a well run company and they can certainly deliver in the current environment, as they have done during the depths of low IO pricing, as note above. An SP based on a $100 price, however, is very risky, but I guess that's your call. One things is certain: the SP has the basis to run higher than it is now. How high is the $64 question. Good luck.