A lot of so called 'sophisticate' investment has poured into this region in recent years and is about to be toasted. Too amplify problems for both investors in Russian/Ukrainian farms and the supply chain through to the ports, the cereal crops are in very poor shape as 30-50% of historic rainfall has been received by the bulk of the cropping areas. The last time there was drought in this region everything was stable politically and Russia banned exports, whilst the Ukraine restricted them. With the threat of war looming also you would have to conclude very little grain will hit global markets.
Not to mention whilst you have Ukrainian citizens struggling to get their cash out of the banking system, how about the poor old farmer who needs credit to buy the inputs needed to finish growing the winter crop that is in the ground or to plant the spring corn/barley/wheat crops once the warmth arrives? He may also be loathed to continue trying if he thinks the Russian government will confiscate what he produces in any case.
That is a very explosive setup for the wheat market in particular. But corn will also be affected and the fertilizer markets for potash and nitrogen.
