AUSTRALIA, Canada and the United States stand a "very high" risk of the H5N1 bird flu pandemic reaching their shores, the Paris-based World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) has warned.
"The probability of this strain appearing in Australia is very high. The possibility is also very high for the United States and Canada," OIE director-general Bernard Vallat told a French parliamentary commission on the disease.
Australia, the US and Canada have so far escaped the spread of the H5N1 strain of avian flu, which originated in Asia in 2003 but which has since spread to the Middle East, Africa, Russia, Turkey and Europe.
Most affected countries have recorded the deadly disease only in birds, though nearly 100 people have died in Asia and Turkey. A few cats in Germany and Austria have also been diagnosed with it.
Mr Vallat said detailed analyses of the widening area hit by the disease showed a "pessimistic" outlook for Australia, Canada and the United States.
Australia would likely see infection brought in via Indonesia, he said.
The other two countries would also possibly see the disease arriving from the north.
The main vector for the spread of H5N1 appears to be through migrating birds.
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