On the other end of the spectrum, Morgan Stanley had the most pessimistic view, and expects the Australian dollar "to depreciate sharply over 2018". Why the RBA can't move
The New York-based investment bank is betting the RBA will keep local interest rates on hold at the record low 1.5 per cent until the second half of 2019 — while the Federal Reserve will lift US interest rates three times this year.
As for most of the other banks, they expect the next domestic rate hike will happen, at least, by the end of this year — but with no consensus on the number of US rate increases ahead.
"A heavy toll will be taken on the Australian dollar" given that US rates will likely become higher than Australia's within months, according to Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans. The last time this occurred was about two decade ago, when the Australian dollar plunged as low as 48 US cents.
With the falling of the Aussie dollar .prices achieved on commodities by most exporters would be greatly supported,
GBG Price at posting:
2.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held