"FLT will ultimately do everything that website webjet does and much more but with scale, deep domain expertise, and a trusted brand."
Thank you for a concise and clear statement of the ultimate issue on hand.
It is worth remembering that FLT is operated by a close group of entrepreneurs who sailed against the wind and prevailed against multiple odds over 2 decades to build a multi-billion dollar business from scratch. The most successful businesses are the ones best adapted to their business ecosystem, and the longevity of success depends on how quickly they adapt to changing circumstances over time. FLT has demonstrated this capability in spades, and as long as the management team stays the same, we have no reason to expect this to change.
Having said that, one must bear in mind a wise saying to the effect that good management could seldom overcome the economics of a bad business. To wit, Mr Market is now saying that online operators, having a much leaner cost structure and better scalability, tapping into consumer's basic behavioural bias of wanting to be in control of their own decisions, will replace FLT which has a higher cost structure. If FLT's business model is one of bad economics, then good management cannot turn lead into gold.
It is worth spending some time to consider the basic assumptions of Mr Market's current conclusion.
If one looks closely at what Skroo has been saying, one is likely to conclude that he is far from being blind, ignorant or stubborn in the face of change. (As a matter of comparison, one could study the actions of CAB and FXJ management as a seminal lesson on what NOT to do in the fact of change). He has conceded that over time, some business will be lost to online operators. However, he also realises that humans do not like to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and complexity. So he is now moving towards a consultancy based model, and increasing the scope and depth of FLT's offerings. In effect, they are targeting the segment of demographics whose travel needs are more complex than just flying from A to B. Corporate and vacationers (and first time vacationers, whose fluency in English is marginal) are quite likely to comprise the biggest growing segment of the global market for the next 2 decades or more. I use the term vacationers loosely in reference to travellers who require advice and service on not just flights, but hotels, car hire, foreign exchange, travel insurance, local customs and norms, etc. This segment includes hordes of baby boomers worldwide who has entered or will be entering retirement, together with the rising middle class in China, India, etc. Also remember that the baby boomers now have access to the best healthcare available, and one would naturally expect their lifespans to continue for at least two to three decades post retirement.
A move towards a consultancy based model also leverages FLT's primary strengths in size and depth. Mr Market is probably underestimating the value of FLT's customer data, together with its corporate knowledge, which includes knowledge and experience of travel consultants who collectively have probably travelled a significant proportion of the globe.
FLT Price at posting:
$35.80 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
