The engineer's had to make sure the finance department's beer...

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Old Engineer

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07/03/19

15:18

Post #: 37687240
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Originally posted by robert23: ↑

Given the speed at which algos work I said to my self i need to have a method to quickly estimate a stocks worth to determine if i want to jump on the bandwagon of a shooting star stock. (Which usually lasts for 1 or 2 days)

I use a short cut discounted cash flow type method.

I know ALL EPS for 2018 was .99 cents, this was reported. Goldman Sachs have estimated EPS for 2019 at 1.43 and EPS for 2020 at 1.65.

Thus I can see growth to 2020 averaging say 30%, but its a risk business so i would apply a conservative multiplier of 20. ( which gives a 5% return.)

Thus I simply multiply 1.43 x 20 = 28.60. ( 1.43 / 28,60 = 5% return)

So i think at 30/9/2019 ALL is worth 28.60. Its trading at 24.74 so there is good upside.

Goldman Sach has a price target of 33.00. this suggests even bigger upside.

They could be using a multiplier of 23 which infers a return of 4% (1 divided by 23)

If you dont want to do this calculation you could join FN Arena and they report a panel of broker estimates for each stock + commentary. Its very good.

FN Arena give 1 month free trial.

I used to work for an EPCM company and have good memories of engineers raiding our (accountants) parties and drinking our beer. Then heading off to the next project. They had a great life.

Good hunting.

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The engineer's had to make sure the finance department's beer didn't go stale.

ALL may take until close to the half yearly report in late May to get a bit of momentum up, but if that report shows that the web site's integration is going well, $30-35 will be easily reached.

ALL Price at posting: $24.85 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $66.49		Change -1.120(1.66%)		Mkt cap ! $36.16B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$67.50	$67.50	$65.92	$138.3M	2.127M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
6	42920	$66.49

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$66.51	2281	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	11689	24.180
2	11791	24.170
1	20645	24.160
3	24239	24.150
3	41354	24.140

Price($)	Vol.	No.
24.220	11689	1
24.230	11731	1
24.240	26310	3
24.250	12545	2
24.260	16391	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 22/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

ALL (ASX) Chart