I've been analyzing Octanex as an investment in the past few...

I've been analyzing Octanex as an investment in the past few days and would like the opinion of others on what they think.

Well I feel both the options and the heads are a good buy for a number of reasons;
- OMV and ENI have agreed to commit to drill - an irrevocable commitment - and most likely the drill location will be specified by end of this year and drill will commence sometime next year (hopefully first half as stated). Octanex could potential be trading around 50-60cent mark easily prior to such a drill

- After speaking to the secretary with regards to the Winchester prospect - they say they have made substantial progress with the processing which will allow them to start farm out process- so we could expect something in the next 6 months or so...

- We will find out news on whether shell has made the commitment to drilling a well in their permits in the next month (by august).

- We can see some sort of acquisition coming up soon as they have ~$20M sitting in the bank

The major risks are:
- Winchestor falls through and the processing results show that the prospect is not as significant as originally expected.
- OMV/ENI delay drilling/ or alter contractual agreement because of new deep offshore drilling laws which may potentially come into play next year as a result of the BP and Timor Sea oil spill
- Octanex wastes its cash on cornea or some other prospect...

Eitherway i feel the heads are depressed and a potential buy and the options are attractive at 6 cents even though they are expiring at the end of the year. This is because the options can be exercised over a 2 year period with 5 cents only required to be paid at the end of this year...

Would like your opinion on what i have posted...

cheers

Tej