Ex, doubt your wrong. Think you have explained exactly how it...

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spinefx

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19/02/19

17:40

Post #: 37488695
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Originally posted by excitable2 ↑

Agree all a bit odd Doc. Clearly the last CR saw a skinny exit, and maybe just a little overhang from that is what we're seeing now as they look to clear the decks.

And maybe that OSH $400m at US$3.1 a barrel was indeed calculated on understated volumes. Certainly OSH are now trumpeting their alignment with Repsol's estimates now, so effectively revaluing it at US$1.30/barrel of discovered resource.

So at A$1.80 equivalent, with a 25% CoS, our 144mbbl nett might have reasonably been expected to translate to around a cent's worth of appreciation this side of the outcome.
From our base of $0.015, we clearly haven't achieved much more than a third of that yet. So why is the market valuing Winx at barely US$0.10 a barrel?

Well, maybe it is some CR overhang?
Maybe there is a discount to the 25% CoS to encourage punt money?
Maybe the market is burning the potential over the next CR too, which in all likelihood will take us well beyond 7b SOI?
Maybe there was some expectation around dripfeed Anns with a FO?
Or, perhaps the story is no longer the shiny new thing, no longer able to capture new interest, nor to re-sell the vision to hardened long termers?

Buggered if i know.

A broad brush sees both 88E and RMP Market Makers measuring Winx using the same EV metrics, so it seems they're not just picking on us. And that same measure discounts (for me at least) that our SP softening is in any way related to a farm out fail.

Could be wrong.

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Ex, doubt your wrong.

Think you have explained exactly how it is.

Cheers

Last edited by spinefx: 19/02/19

88E Price at posting: 1.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 0.2¢		Change -0.001(25.0%)		Mkt cap ! $57.86M

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Ex, doubt your wrong. Think you have explained exactly how it...

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