17th Sep update
Cobalt 10 looking very sick. IMO, this is a combination of falling general commodity prices, and also reality coming home to speculators: financing billion dollar capex for HPAL (ARL, AUZ, CLQ), and considerable timelines to real production (COB). AML continues to prove up its project, and CLA awaits the completion of a SS. EUC and MEI, the European and Canadian explorers included, have yet to discover anything derisking for investors. So, with the exception of NZC and PAN, it's in-between times.
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A strong downtrend is indicated. Possible support presents at the previous highs
from the start of 2017. This is surely a great disappointment to the sector, whose key commodity shows such tremendous promise in the macro. However, many projects were overvalued in the extreme towards the end of 2017.
Lithium surprisingly shows a similar story, heading towards the highs of the start of 2017. This is despite the massive derisking that has occurred thence, with half of the index already, or nearly, shipping their product to customers (GXY, TAW, PLS, AJM, ORE)
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Containing successful mining companies hasn't assisted the index. After testing 6.5B for several months, it has plunged through 5B support to 4.5B since mid-July, about 30% over a two month period. Shorting activity has continued at about 20-40% of traded volume on most of the major players. There are plenty of conspiracy theories surrounding this mystery. That each of the companies has some dilemma on its hands (KDR Warden's ruling, TAW merger, AJM debt, etc etc) doesn't help to countermand the confidence attacks of oversupply fears and adverse policy rulings in foreign countries.
