ASX Growth Company, page-9

@Fire Bull
I actually think it is not only pointless to do this sort of analysis when the numbers cannot be confirmed, I think it is actively dangerous and at high risk of giving completely spurious results.
For instance I object to the number of users.
I am not sure of the sales model exactly- but given there are only 300 enterprises, perhaps its selling to enterprise at a much higher ARPU than implied.

The really big problem is the increase in churn. This is a red flag and it should be explored.
Churn actually decays proportionally to growth. For many businesses- new cutomers are likely to switch out within 12 months, and those that stay are "sticky". As such as you continue growing a proportion of the new customers will continually churn but the longer stayers stick around. As growth slows, there should be a corresponding drop in churn.

For instance Xeros numbers (on a half-yearly basis) are shown in the table below- the churn decay is remarkably constant on my model (2nd row) compared to actual numbers (5th row).
In this case starting churn at approx 24 percent...to 7.4% predicted by model (but actually 13% and lower growth decay than predicted!)...
Anyway increasing churn can rapidly spiral out of control- it means that you are chasing revenue and that perhaps product market fit is not quite there...

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8	Column 9	Column 10	Column 11	Column 12	Column 13	Column 14	Column 15	Column 16	Column 17	Column 18	Column 19	Column 20	Column 21
0				Year		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
1					51300	77976	114233	161726	221849	295591	383444	485340	600657	728257	866578	1013735	1167643	1326133	1487061	1648391	1808269
2						52%	46%	42%	37%	33%	30%	27%	24%	21%	19%	17%	15%	14%	12%	11%	10%
3	Initial subscriber number	51300				26676	36257	47494	60122	73743	87853	101896	115316	127601	138321	147157	153908	158490	160928	161331	159877
4	Initial growth	76%		ACTUAL		78	112	157	210	284	371	475	593	717	862	1035	1199
5	Initial churn	23.7%
6	Growth decay	0.896
7	Churn decay	0.9