astoria should we be expecting bid today, page-26

G'Day Boys

I am not a guru when it comes to valuing Commander.

The challenge is not just the value of the customer base, it is the debt level and how much of that debt their Bankers are willing to write off as part of the sale process. It also has to do with how many customers will stay with Commander (or whoever buys them) when so many of their top salespeople are leaving. I know they are already loosing a fair degree of customers.

Here is something for you to think about - why would Dimension Data buy Commander when they are already picking up a number of the top Commander salespeople are Services personnel - free of charge. That isn't to say that Dimension Data won't buy them, but it must reduce the considered purchase price.

Here is something else to think about - lets say that this is a hypethetical situation - what if some of Commander's recent acquisitions, were done using Commander shares and not cash. If those transactions were done when the Commander share price was $2.30 and the value of the Commander shares was guaranteed, imagine what that does to the purchase situation, when Commander shares fall to 40 cents. Any prospective purchaser, then has to deal with that hyperthetical situation as well.

Lets hope that HH know something that we don't.

At the end of the day, I really don't care about any of the above, if there is money to be made on Commander shares, I'm all for it. I just have trouble working out what the value of those damn Commander shares is - given what I know about their current situation.

Regards

Tails