arrow's t/h

Back in July 2006, New Hope picked up 122.6mil Arrow shares for A$119.3m (avg price of A$1.0276/sh).

So for the initial offer of $4.45/sh, NHC's gains b4 tax are, (122.6m * $4.45)-$119.3m = $426.27m
Shares on issue: 827.2305mil,
Pre-tax gain/share: 51.53 cents/sh

AOE last traded at $5.29, b4 the halt this morning, so on that price alone, NHC's gains are worth $529.254m or ~64c/sh.

If the offer is sweetened by RDS-PTR to hypothetically say $5.75, then NHC gains $585.65m or 70.8c/sh.

Should b interesting to see what AOE's strategy is firstup. Both AGL & NHC will gain something out of that deal t/o IMHO, unless AOE opts to raise some capital, in which case the landscape changes completely & the bidders would b aware of that, rather then come back yet again by Xmas.

Just my thoughts for now. Will find out more on Tues, when AOE comes out of the halt.