"imho adi have a better chance of going up right now.."My view,...

"imho adi have a better chance of going up right now.."

My view, FWIW. Also, if AWE is serious, it should end up having to pay a premium over fair market to gain control - else where is the incentive for shareholders to give up the right to future growth in value?

The traders will bank their margin and look elsewhere. The investors can see the pot of gold in the not too distant future and will need an incentive to release those rights. If this company was the sole avenue into S/L, it would be in a much stronger position.

But the ATO has helped it. Whether investors get hit by CGT on 50% or on 100%, they are still having to consider investing a net of tax amount in either of the other JVPs. Investors would require a price that compensates them for that, in part, at least. That's the theory, anyway.