BLY 0.92% 54.0¢ boart longyear group ltd

Arbitrage Opportunity, page-20

  1. 261 Posts.
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    I was about to buy some shares from the SPP at it looks like a bargain at the current SP, but then I had to make some calculation.

    Before the Recapitalisation was announced the SP was around 8c. Let's hipothetycally say that now the services offered are in very high demand, and that the company should be valued 3 times (very generous assumption), giving a SP of 24c. Now, the shares issued, from about 1b pre recapitalisation will become about 24b after recapitalisation, which means a diluition factor of 24.

    So if we apply a diluition factor of 24 to the hipotetycal share price of 24c it makes a SP of 1c

    Also to note the suspicious fact the lately the SP has experienced an unexplainable raise in value, to eventually end up in free fall, which by the way seems still to be in downtrend.

    So basically, considering the ongoing downtrend, by the time the new shares will be released the price might be in tho low 2c range. Considering the incredibly huge amount of new shares, Some people will take immediate profit and some other will sell in fear to lose capital, driving the SP even lower.

    Because of these reSons, I decided to watch with curiosity from the sideline and might grab a small parcel should it fall aroun 0.4-0.5c

    As I am not a professional investor, it might be a totally wrong interpretation of course, but I took my chances not buying shares from the SPP

    GLTAH
 
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