AQR 0.00% $3.50 apn convenience retail reit

paprad...Look at the distances between hits...and consistency of...

  1. 15,276 Posts.
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    paprad...

    Look at the distances between hits...and consistency of grades, especially with the most recent drill...and likelihood of 400m+ intersections in the latest lot of drilling...then refer to the fact they may not have drilled the bullseye of this thing yet.

    We are talking an area of some 5km x about 1km of potential mineralised look-alike targets...and a potential higher-grade zone withinand this is all coincident with a mag low, which to date they have been drilling the fringes of.

    I agree however, it is very early days and we simply do not know what may lie beneath...which is why this thing is mostly running on blue sky hype thus far...but I do believe this can quiet conceivably be bigger than 650m tonnes.

    Buts lets be sensible...such things eventuating ARE NOT WHAT IS DRIVING THE DAILY SWINGS IN PRICE HERE...they are simply a backdrop to an emerging rerating story which may or may not persist.

    Remember, we also have a corporate incentive here to get the directors/management options converted, to provide the company funding, but also no-doubt to give those converting a well deserved profit.

    Lets not forget these guys withdrew voluntarily a previous options issue at 20c to themselvesit was during the GFC and was done to limit dilution to shareholders during difficult times. It would seem fitting for them to get these options homeand I would not be at all surprised to learn supports of the stock are rewarding them for this previous gesture.

    Who knows exactly what is driving the AQR priceit may well be a combination of many things. This thing could go higher or lower from here...as I said, who really knows?

    In this regard, I look at SFR, RXM, ROL...any number of rerating stories of late...some of the swings from day to day were (still are), significant...spikes followed by troughs...followed by spikes again and so on.

    When the traders get on board it can be pretty hard to know exactly when the music will stop...which is why it is always a good idea to lock in some profits as the thing rises.

    On this issue, I suspect this is what has been happening...I know I took profits at 100% by selling half and leaving the rest free carried...something I nearly always do. This raises an interesting scenario of itself by the way...if as I suspect many have been doing this, it would explain the reducing trading volumes apparently available as the price has risen...each significant rise in price effectively results in some of the free-float being locked away. Whilst new stock becomes available as any stock rises, the corresponding locking away of stock can often outweigh the appearance of new stockthe net result of which is a reduction of the free-float as the price rises...the higher she goes, the less stock available to hit the market. We saw this exact scenario in RXM, SFR, etc.

    Just remember we can sell at any time...and/or buy back in as well...just need to make sure we are doing so for our own reasons.

    Riding a stock when the traders flood in can be like riding a bucking bronco...hang on for as long as you dare or jump when you have had enoughmeanwhile, welcome to a possible value transition at the retail end of the market.

    Cheers!
 
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