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29/01/19
08:48
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Originally posted by chuk
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On the 26th I posted on this thread that Mile End store was showing zero stock for all colours for click and collect so they were either completely sold out again in just 3 weeks since restocking or very close to it..Some other stores that I watch are out of some colours. This would back up your research that sales have been strong again in January.
I was hoping for and expecting good sales post Christmas but I only allowed for relatively weak sales in my spreadsheet to keep it conservative until we saw some evidence of post Christmas sales numbers. I assumed around 30,000 units over a full 12 months in bricks and mortar in Australia/NZ. I’m thinking we might be getting close to half that in the two months of Dec/Jan. The trading update showed around 10,000 sold in Dec. We might be close to 5,000 in Jan. Your research suggests it may be much higher but I don’t think JB had enough stock to support much more than 5,000 units across all outlets. I would love to see our online sales growth remain strong as margins there are so much higher compared to margins selling through retailers. 30,000 over 12 months from Dec 2018 to Nov 2019 is looking reasonable. UK could do at least double that over its first full year. Before that year is up, we might be selling to other European countries so sales growth should compound very strongly again through European expansion.
Your research together with what I have observed makes me more confident in my assumptions. So again, thanks for posting some quality research.
This continues to look strongly undervalued after this correction.
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Parents tend to leave back to school stuff until the very end of the holidays. We may even sell more after the Christmas period due to word of mouth spreading and parents panicking to get their kids back at school with everything they need