App store rankings, page-162

On the 16th of Feb I posted;
"From company releases we know that 9,000 watches were shipped to B&M stores for Nov and Dec and we know JB was very low on stock by Christmas. If you allow for some smaller sales in Leading Edge in Oct, and three months worth of sales for Allmytribe (would have been at least 1,000 watches IMO for the Christmas quarter), around 10,000 watches were probably sold in the Dec qtr to consumers."
The story is probably better than that. We know we had a very big jump in sales after JB (early November) and Spark (late Nov/early Dec) came on board. The size of the jump in sales is clearly evident in the chart of actual quarterly sales from the Jan update shown below. The 4th qtr sales were approx 9 times the sales of the 3rd qtr and that would almost entirely be due to JB and Spark.



So it's pretty clear that the large majority of the 10,000 watches (I estimate approx 9,000) would have been sold in just the two months of Nov/Dec. That is an average of 4,500 in each month, (although more likely more were sold in Dec than Nov as indicated by the Applyzer app download ranking charts in my previous post). Those charts also show that on average, download rankings for the app in Jan/Feb were at least in line or  higher than the average for Nov/Dec and that would indicate that sales to consumers in Jan/Feb may be at similar levels to Nov/Dec. Keep in mind that the Applyzer charts reflect the download activity of the app which would correlate with watches sold to the consumer (by both Allmytribe and the retailers) and not watches sold by MWR to the retailers (which may or may not sit on the shelves as those sitting on shelves will not show up in the Applyzer results). That is; my estimates of sales to consumers will not necessarily correlate with figures on total sales by MWR on a monthly basis but should be closer on a qtr basis. 
If sales to consumers were around 4,500 per month in Nov and Dec and they maintain that average in Jan and Feb as the Applyzer charts might suggest, then our ANZ annual sales are looking good. Whatever sales we end up at for this first qtr., the chart above suggests we should expect steady strong qrt on qtr growth for the second and third qtr's followed by stronger growth in the Dec qtr. An average of 4,500 per month equates to 54,000 per year and that's with no allowance for any growth. So even if the Applyzer charts are misleading and this qtr sees a modest decline from the Dec qtr (as we might otherwise expect for seasonal reasons), then expected strong qtr on qtr growth for qtr 2, 3 and 4 could more than offset any dip this qtr and annual sales still end up at 54,000 or more for ANZ. They could in fact be much better than that for this calendar year if there is a big jump in sales in December.
The above excludes UK sales from April and possibly other parts of Europe later in the year. How many will be sold in the UK between April and the end of December? We can only estimate right now but the much larger population there certainly gives confidence.
The chart above shows that our 4th qtr sales were $2.3mill and most of that was over two months only (Spacetalk division only). We should be looking for ANZ sales of at least $12mill this calendar year and probably around $36mill with UK sales included (assuming $24mill for UK) - UK population is 2.6 times ANZ combined population. Our sales should be between $24mill (if UK sales same as ANZ) and perhaps $36mill. Our market cap is $39mill. It can't stay that low for long. We should be trading with a market cap well over $100 mill if sales this qtr are only modestly below the Dec qtr. and we then expect growth for the remainder of the year.