in todays financials APD says the FUM they manage for AEZ is $920m as at 30 June 2009.
Looking at the old figures for 31 March 2009 assets were $1.2b. That suggests assets have fallen around 28% since march.
that means NTA will be around $0.40 and equity will be $220m. this suggest multiple LVR breaches and therefore a cap raising.
it was also interesting to note that APD was mentioning M&A, i guess they are softening us up for a big equity raising to reduce gearing. or maybe the reason the price has been increasing as well as vol is that there is a low ball bid out there. going on past bids in the space then 60% of NTA would be about right, or around $0.25.
if assets are $220m and $700m debt and they need a 50% LVR then they will need around $450m.
if APD was smart, they would go to AMP and tell them to buy out APD for $40m and get the management rights to AEZ. then AMP could delist AEZ and recapitalise it and we would have a strong balance sheet behind it. the way it is APN is way way out of its league managing AEZ.
there is value in AEZ but it needs to be recapitaised.
AEZ Price at posting:
5.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
