In my view, this is a relatively sweet deal for AOE, as they are paying little more than cost, with balance payable only if and as project proceeds. I doubt they would want to pay even that much unless the project was looking very,very strong, so I share sentiment that this looks like a pre-FID indication. Delay of a month or two not an issue-we are playing a 30 year game. Cannot escape fact that while control should be important/worthy to AOE management, it is probably even more so to Shell ( no company is more a control freak-not implying thats a bad thing here) and even to Santos, which should be even more attracted to AOE now. Biggest risk to AOE holders is such an oppotunistic bid in short term, off recent 25% price correction. I would prefer AOE used project and corporate debt, existing cash and minority equity funds ( eg infrastructure funds) to frame up a relatively achievable renounceabloe rights issue at around $700 million. I believe most holders would support AOE here, and see no rush to crystallize, and maybe pay CGT, when this is one of those wealth builders investors dream about.
AOE Price at posting:
$3.45 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
