for the Redbank Power remaining assets?Ultimately it is the...

for the Redbank Power remaining assets?

Ultimately it is the combination of Revenues and Cash Flows
that will attract or detract certain interested parties from sniffing on this.

I have been selling off my shares because of this lack of clarity in the past. I realize now that they remain a listed company and will have to provide some of that disclosure going forward.

Whenver I trade in Australia I see how high the interest rates are there to begin with and this just suggests that even a putative refinancing is not going to come for free.

A debt for equity swap could be a nice solution that can defer the problem. And help buy some time. I am not sure that banks or other lenders would be that willing to forgo something that is theirs, unless a industry buyer steps up.

the carbon tax bailout to equity sounds interesting but rather speculative. Depends if there is a political concensus to compensate at X dollar per MW of capacity.

They you still have to figure out at what EV/MW of capacity this little rump trades at.

Since I am not familiar with this asset overall, I am going to read the quarterly or half year report eagerly to get the details on just the remaining operations and at what percentage of capacity its operating. etc.

A sluggish economy would hurt this name. Correct? If the world economy double dips, legitimately one should watch out below.

I didnt sell my shares because any of this but because of lack of knowledge on what is going on with these assets.

It doesnt look like they got anything in the last asset disposal. Where I just picked up a newsflash of sorts without much analytics.

What I have seen in liquidations like this is that managers are very realistic in highlighting the range of outcomes, including the possibility of ZERO but then the shareholders put all their hopes onto the non-zero outcome.

The last deal of this kind I presided as a non-shareholder was Handleman in US where some folks even believed the liquidatio of assets could surface up to 2 dollars in value and eventually it wasnt even enough for creditors and equity got zero, as initially highlighted by turnaround advisors.

The only think supporting the status quo in any way even at the current valuation is ongoing earnings and other holding company assets outside the reach of creditors. While the parties work on a solution there will always be costs. Because no shopping around of assets will ever be done for free by advisors and lawyers.

Voluntary or involuntary administration are very expensive advisory solutions in the end and for the time being AEJ seems to flirt on the edge of the abyss. I am sure their bankers are reasonably cooperative, as workout departments generally are cooperative. One indication of value here is clearly to find out at what cents on the dollar the banks are willing to get out of their papers. Its not like the banks or some banks would not accept liquidity, if someone came up to them with a 100 to 150 MM truckload of the green stuff.

This is how TPG proceeded to get that part of the assets that they wanted.

The equity is clearly a residual.

The best option to some on this board seems a generous bailout from the government. Thats a quite unpredictable value argument and until we get to that bridge, I am wondering what the ongoing losses will be.

Hence my curiosity to dig into the remaining financials just to see what is left. With the decision to remain listed, at least we get the benefit of more financials published. informing us how subsidiary and or holding company equity evolves from here onwards.