"IMO the key to this whole 'mess' is the number of shares that...

"IMO the key to this whole 'mess' is the number of shares that big third parties have and will get their hands on by the time the original offer is set to expire or the number that gets shaken from the tree by the higher offer."

Agreed. Many will be watching what Goldman does when the new offer is made. AWE only has to secure about 25% of the outstanding shares to gain control. It is likely that they will win at the price that secures Goldman's stake even though it is nowhere sufficient for AWE to gain control.