Dilution is probably not an issue (BOD have already readjusted their previous convertible notes and their previously held options to account for the dilution factor, so it’s practically everyone else but not them who gets potentially diluted).
Debt is in an issue for as long as the CBA remains around (security over everything including the farms, to back up the CDC acquisition). The facility is maxed out, interest only and due for repayment in Apr19.
Farm valuations have not held up to date. Pattern of write downs between 2015 and 2017. H18 was nil change. Attempting to get the RV back up but it hasn’t happened yet. Conversely, only the H18 words referencing “commercial in confidence” contracts (which if IF gets a go will likely then be lost as 17M litres cannot serve both revenue streams) kept CDC at bay and out of reach of a potential impairment (current utilisation to H18 is down in the low 40s - perhaps even lower - and well below where it was at the time of acquisition).
Likely outcome therefore is a heavy CR with dilution and some smaller proportional debt adjustment.
AHF Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
